Science of Electoral Justice

Lessons learned from Get-Out-The-Vote (GOTV) experiments from the Yale University Institution for Social and Policy Studies

From the site:

"it is the dynamic interaction of authentic person-to-person contact that is most important in determining whether a method will successfully mobilize voters"

"email and online organizing can be instrumental in organizing other successful mobilization methods even if mass email GOTV messages as a direct mobilizing tools have yet to be proven effective in any experiment."

"voter research has begun to explore the effectiveness of mobilization carried out through interactions between members of voters’ own social networks" [in other words, GOTV contact can have a greater impact to the extent that the persons contacted can mobilize their own social networks, especially those who are neighbors.]

"The content of mobilization messages is not as important as the quality, timing and delivery of messages, which is not to say that message content does not matter at all"

"personally-delivered phone messages by nonpartisan volunteers can be effective in mobilizing voters"

Caveat:

All of the research was conducted prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and the Trump administration. The methods of interpersonal contact that are most effective and their overall efficacy are likely to be significantly different. Thus, the focus should be on the general principles of personal neighborly interaction and translating those principles into actions that are most feasible during the pandemic. 

Bennion, E., & Nickerson, D. (2019). What We Know about How to Mobilize College Students to Vote. Unpublished manuscript.

While the paper is mostly a call for more research, it provides a useful review of the methods of contacting individuals.

Voter Registration: A Pre-Requisite to Electoral Engagement

• Evidence from College Campuses: Classroom Registration Works
  
• Evidence from College Campuses: Email is Ineffective at Registering New Voters
• Other Relevant Studies: Registration Drives Produce Votes

Traditional GOTV Techniques

• Door-to-door Canvassing
• Leaflets and Signage
• Direct Mail
  
• Phone Calls
  

Events and Campus Gatherings

• Candidate Debates
• Election Day Festival
• GOTV Competitions
• First Time Voter Programs
  

New Approaches to Mobilization: Email, Social Media, & Text Messaging

• Email
• Social Media
• Smartphone Apps
• Text Messaging
  

Beyond GOTV Tactics & Experiments: Creating a Campus Culture of Engagement

• Positioning Polling Places on College Campuses
• Fostering Political Learning and Engagement Year-Round

Dale, A., & Strauss, A. (2009). Don't forget to vote: Text message reminders as a mobilization tool. American Journal of Political Science, 53(4), 787-804.

Current explanations of effective voter mobilization strategies maintain that turnout increases only when a potential voter is persuaded to participate through increased social connectedness. The connectedness explanation does not take into account, however, that registered voters, by registering, have already signaled their interest in voting. The theory presented in this article predicts that impersonal, noticeable messages can succeed in increasing the likelihood that a registered voter will turn out by reminding the recipient that Election Day is approaching. Text messaging is examined as an example of an impersonal, noticeable communication to potential voters. A nationwide field experiment (n = 8,053) in the 2006 election finds that text message reminders produce a statistically significant 3.0 percentage point increase in the likelihood of voting. While increasing social connectedness has been shown to positively affect voter turnout, the results of this study, in combination with empirical evidence from prior studies, suggest that connectedness is not a necessary condition for a successful mobilization campaign. For certain voters, a noticeable reminder is sufficient to drive them to the polls.

Haenschen, K., & Jennings, J. (2019). Mobilizing millennial voters with targeted internet advertisements: a field experiment. Political Communication, 36(3), 357-375.

You will have to pay for access to this article.

Internet advertisements have come under tremendous scrutiny recently for their potential to impact electoral outcomes. However, academic research has yet to determine if they have an effect on turnout. This article presents the results of a preregistered field experiment conducted in Dallas, Texas, in partnership with The Dallas Morning News in which individually targeted banner ads were able to generate a statistically significant increase in turnout among Millennial voters in a municipal election. The results show that a combination of information and voting reminder ads was effective, but only for voters in competitive districts. Estimated treatment effects were on par with a telephone mobilization campaign using live callers. These findings contribute to theoretical knowledge about the role of political knowledge and electoral competitiveness in voter mobilization, and offer a new method for testing online advertisements used by political campaigns.

Stein, R. M., Mann, C., Stewart III, C., Birenbaum, Z., Fung, A., Greenberg, J., ... & Beaulieu, E. (2020). Waiting to vote in the 2016 presidential election: Evidence from a multi-county study. Political Research Quarterly, 73(2), 439-453.

This paper is the result of a nationwide study of polling place dynamics in the 2016 presidential election. Research teams, recruited from local colleges and universities and located in twenty-eight election jurisdictions across the United States, observed and timed voters as they entered the queue at their respective polling places and then voted. 

Long lines, waiting times, and times to vote are closely related to time of day (mornings are busiest for polling places) and the availability of poll workers

The number of poll workers is a significant corrective for long lines and check-in time. In both instances, the number of poll workers per voters in line had a significant and negative effect on reducing average line length and time it took to check in voters.

Line length has a significant and negative effect on the number of voters who, upon arrival at a polling location, experience a long line and choose to leave rather than wait in line.

there are longer check-in times in majority nonwhite polling places, independent of other unobserved county- and state-level effects

McClendon, G. G. (2019). Will I Be Able to Cast My Ballot? Race, Income, and Voting Access on Election Day. Report 19-36. Center for Social Development, Washington University in St. Louis. 

From the report:

McElwee (2015, p. 2) reports that, “In 2014, 44 million eligible voters of color did not vote, and 66 million eligible voters earning less than $50,000 did not vote.”

Research has documented voting barriers commonly encountered by people of color, people living near the poverty line, and other vulnerable populations (Barreto, Cohen-Marks, & Woods, 2009; Reilly & Ulbig, 2018; Wang, 2012).

A report by the Election Protection coalition (2018, p. 1) identifies the top barriers documented in the November 2018 election: (1) “long lines and late openings,” (2) “untrained or poorly trained poll workers,” (3) “delays in receiving absentee ballots,” (4) voter registration problems, (5) “faulty or insufficient voting equipment,” (6) “restrictive voter ID laws,” (7) “problems with absentee ballots,” (8) “intimidation and deceptive practices,” and (9) “lack of voter assistance.” Election Protection (2016) reports that the number of complaints has increased over time.
___________

In this study, we collected data through observations conducted at 20 polling places [in St. Louis County, MO] on Election Day, November 6, 2018. Sampling was designed to identify differences in voting access by race and income, if they exist.

The percentage of Black residents in a census tract is positively and statistically significantly associated with the line count

The results for racial makeup suggest a connection to interference with the free passage of voters entering or exiting polling places.

Additionally, researchers at the polling locations in high poverty tracts reported a higher frequency of conditions that prevented voters from completing ballots in privacy: lack of seating for voters completing ballots, lack of privacy screens, and lack of dedicated paper-ballot stations.

there was a more significant police presence at polling locations in high-poverty tracts.

For sites in predominantly-Black and low-income census tracts, researchers reported deficiencies in the number of election judges present and longer lines in the evening. Polling locations in tracts with higher median income and lower percentages of Black residents had longer lines in the morning.

Overall, these findings confirm our hypothesis that where someone lives and votes can influence their ability to cast their vote, particularly in neighborhoods with higher percentages of Black residents and lower household incomes. The results add clear empirical support to an understudied aspect of voter suppression and document how it occurs.